If you’re playing as a shopkeeper in Probably Stolen, your main goal is to rake in the cash. By keeping a close watch on events, you can strategically boost your profits. This guide will walk you through all the various events you could encounter and how they can impact your earnings.
In this game, timing is everything. Whether it’s sudden price hikes due to market events or unique customers visiting your shop during specific events, recognizing these cues can prevent you from wasting resources or missing out on major sales. Knowing when to buy low and sell high can be the difference between thriving and barely scraping by.
Before diving into the details, make sure you have some credits to spare daily. You’ll want to pay the Shady Customer for intel on upcoming events which can shape your purchasing decisions!
Events in Probably Stolen come in various forms, often announced in the daily newspaper or calendar. Tips from customers can also reveal crucial information about upcoming market shifts. For instance, the Shady Customer will share valuable hints but at a cost of 50 credits. These events can drastically alter the prices of items, leading to opportunities for clever shopkeepers.
General Guideline
The impact of various events typically centers around price changes for affected items. For example, during a Water Supply Crisis, you can expect the price of water to spike, making it a lucrative time for sales if you stock up beforehand. However, buying during such events is a bad idea. Always aim to have items in stock before an event that raises prices; that’s how you maximize your profit margins efficiently. Keep in mind that while random events can fluctuate market prices, scheduled events like rent days won’t change those percentages.
A few things can occur during events:
- Prices for affected items typically change.
- New customers linked to the event will visit your shop.
- Some events will create faction requests visible on your store PC.
The daily roll (random market events)
Here’s a breakdown of new market events and their chances of occurring based on what’s already active:
Every day when you dive into the game, you’ll be greeted by the potential of a surprise market event waiting to unfold. It’s a fresh opportunity to shake things up in your strategy!
| Market events already running | Chance of a new one today |
|---|---|
| 0 | 50% |
| 1 | 35% |
| 2 | 25% |
| 3 or more | 0% (hard cap) |
Keep these points in mind:
- No random market events will occur during the first 5 days unless you skip the intro.
- Keep an eye on rent, mortgage days, cartel visits, and faction operations, as they count towards your market event cap of 3.
- Once an event begins, it becomes locked until its duration plus cooldown period is over.
- If the same event is triggered again during its run, it gets an extension instead of a fresh start.
- New events that counter ongoing events will terminate the previous one (e.g., a Water Supply Surplus ends a Water Supply Crisis).
Flavour news
When tracking shortages, it’s defined by the active modifiers for each item category.
Shortage indicator
These thresholds also apply in reverse for surpluses, where decreases in price can indicate an item surplus.
In total, there are 15 market events. The more common events have an 8.3% chance of occurring, while rarer events like Who Turned Out The Lights? have significantly lower odds.
And hey, just like in life, we have thresholds that apply when things go the other way, especially for those déjà vu moments when you find yourself dealing with surpluses. Keep this in mind as you strategize!
Random Market Events
| Event (in-game name) | Odds | Lasts | Cooldown | Price effects | Event customer (daily) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Nutrifruit Harvest | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Food +50% | Food Buyer (Medical) |
| Nutrifruit Seed Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Food +33%, Seeds +50% | Farmer (Seeds) |
| Medical Supplies Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Medical +50% | Pharmacist (Medical) |
| Water Supply Crisis | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Water +50%, Rations +50% | Corporate Rep (Water) |
| Minor Water Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Water +35%, Rations +35% | Lower Level Citizen |
| Water Supply Surplus | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Water −25% | Ice Miner |
| Household Item Surplus | (8.3%) | 1 day | 3 | Household Goods −20% | Scavenger |
| Material Surplus | (8.3%) | 1 day | 3 | Materials −25% | Miner |
| Construction Projects | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Materials +30% | Foreman (Materials) |
| Tourist Influx | (5.6%) | 1 day | 3 | none | Tourist |
| Power Plant Maintenance | (5.6%) | 1 day | 3 | Energy +33% | Lower Level Citizen |
| Lower Level Lynching | (4.4%) | 1 day | 10 | Weapons, Ammo +33% | Angry Citizen |
| Power Outage | (3.9%) | 2 days | 3 | Energy +66% | Lower Level Citizen |
| Oxymore Addiction On The Rise | (3.3%) | 2 days | 5 | Medical +25% | Clinic Volunteer |
| Who Turned Out The Lights? | (2.2%) | 2 days | 3 | Energy +50%, Weapons +25% | Upper Level Resident |
| Event (in-game name) | Odds | Lasts | Cooldown | Price effects | Event customer (daily) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Nutrifruit Harvest | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Food +50% | Food Buyer (buys Food, Medical). Also posts a Soup Kitchen request. |
| Nutrifruit Seed Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Food +33%, Seeds +50% | Farmer (buys/sells Seeds) |
| Medical Supplies Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Medical +50% | Pharmacist (buys Medical, Seeds). Also posts 3 Medical Supply requests. |
| Water Supply Crisis | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Water +50%, Water Rations +50%, Beverages +45%, Water Purification +40% | 50/50: Spacer or Corporate Representative |
| Minor Water Shortage | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Water +35%, Rations +35%, Beverages +30%, Purification +25% | Lower Level Citizen (water trade) |
| Water Supply Surplus | (8.3%) | 2 days | 3 | Water −25%, Rations −25%, Beverages −20%, Purification −15% | Ice Miner (sells Substances, Materials) |
| Household Item Surplus | (8.3%) | 1 day | 3 | Household Goods −20% | Scavenger (sells) |
| Material Surplus | (8.3%) | 1 day | 3 | Materials −25% | Miner |
| Construction Projects | (8.3%) | 3 days | 3 | Materials +30% | Foreman (buys Materials). Also posts 2 Construction requests. |
| Tourist Influx | (5.6%) | 1 day | 3 | none | Tourist, Station Tourist (weapon souvenirs) or Station Tourist (junk souvenirs) |
| Power Plant Maintenance | (5.6%) | 1 day | 3 | Energy Cells +33% | Lower Level Citizen (buys Energy Cells) |
| Lower Level Lynching | (4.4%) | 1 day | 10 | Weapons, Ammo, Armor +33% | Angry Citizen (buys Weapons, Armor) |
| Power Outage | (3.9%) | 2 days | 3 | Energy Cells +66% | Lower Level Citizen (buys Energy Cells) |
| Oxymore Addiction On The Rise | (3.3%) | 2 days | 5 | Medical +25% | 33% Clinic Volunteer, 22% Desperate Addict, otherwise none |
| Who Turned Out The Lights? | (2.2%) | 2 days | 3 | Energy Cells +50%, Weapons +25%, Ammo +25% | Upper Level Resident (buys Energy Cells), plus 25% chance of a Panicked Shopkeeper (buys Weapons, Armor) |
The Seed Shortage will automatically conclude once the story reveals the Nutrifruit seed secret.
Now, don’t think the Seed Shortage is here to stay! Once you progress through the story and unlock the Nutrifruit seed secret, that pesky shortage will come to an end. Adventure awaits!
Advance Warnings (Tips)
With the excitement of random events, you might wonder how to get a leg up on what’s about to come. Luckily, this game has a nifty mechanic in the form of tips! They’ll hook you up with hints about upcoming events in three fantastic ways:
- The Shady Customer
- “Word on the Street”
- Faction tip perks
Shady Customer (information dealer)
Each tip given by the Shady Customer serves as a countdown for an impending event that could affect your business operations. Make sure to use this intel wisely!
| Tip | Arrives in | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| Nutrifruit Harvest (Food −20%) | 1–4 days | 2–4 days |
| Bad Nutrifruit Harvest | 3 days | 3 days |
| Medical Supplies Shortage | 1–4 days | 2–4 days |
| Water Supply Crisis | 3 days | 3 days |
| Household Item Surplus | 1 day | 2 days |
| Material Surplus | 1–3 days | 1–2 days |
| Water Supply Surplus | 2 days | 2 days |
Note that the Nutrifruit Harvest event can only be sourced via tips, and won’t pop up randomly in market events.
“Word on the Street” (Lower Levels reputation 60)
Every morning brings a little excitement with a 4% chance of snagging a complimentary Intel Slip for a surprise market event that will pop up in just 2–3 days. It’s a great way to start your day, so keep your fingers crossed for that lucky break!
Faction tip perks
To unlock those nifty faction perks, you’ll want to earn yourself a solid 60 reputation. Once you hit that milestone, exciting operations will become visible on your calendar, beckoning you to dive into new adventures!
- Lower Levels: “Word on the Street”
- Security: “Trusted”
- Upper Level: “Gossipmonger”
- Revolution: “Friend of the Revolution”
- Black Market: “Underground Network”
Scheduled, Story and Special events
| Event | When | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Rent Due | Every 7 days | Time to pay the rent! If you forget, that debt will carry over to the next. |
| Mortgage Payment | Weekly, once you take a mortgage | Make sure you don’t miss your mortgage installment! |
| Cartel Visit | Cartel storyline | A representative from the cartel will swing by for a meeting. |
| Lottery Draw | Every 7th day once the lottery is unlocked (Saturdays) | Check the newspaper for those winning numbers. If you have 3+ matching digits, you’re a winner! Go claim your prize with your lottery rep. |
| Evidence Locker Break-In! | Day 7 (normal intro only) | A Thief appears offering the stolen evidence crate from the Security Department’s Evidence Locker. You’ll have options: take the Security request for “Missing Evidence Locker” (+10 rep) or go for the Black Market option for “Stolen Evidence Locker” (+5 rep, pays better). |
| Meteor Shower | Story event | Enjoy a boost of materials +50% for three days, along with a daily Foreman appearance! It’ll generate Critical Repair (Lower Levels, +10 rep) and Pool Repair requests (Upper Level, +5 rep) for an Engineering Foundry Supply Crate. |
| Lower Level Revolutionary Captured! | After the Wanted target Arthur Lafleur is reported | Make sure to catch this intriguing newspaper story! |
| High-Ranking Visiting Admiral Assassinated! | Lou’s storyline | This shocking news will make headlines! |
| Pastel’s Nutrifruit Secret Leaked! | Eleanor’s storyline | This will be reported in the newspaper and will permanently put an end to the Seed Shortage event. |
Requests posted by events
With a 60 reputation score in the Lower Levels faction, you unlock perks that also enable you to see operations on your calendar. This helps you anticipate upcoming events, giving you a strategic edge.
Each morning, you might receive an Intel Slip for a random market event thanks to a 4% chance through the Word on the Street mechanic.
| Request | From | Trigger | Deliver | Rep | Credits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical Supply – Charity Clinic | Lower Levels | Medical Shortage | 3 × Medical Supplies (Common) | +8 | 60 |
| Medical Supply – General Hospital | Upper Level | Medical Shortage | 3 × Medical Supplies (Common) | +3 | 100 |
| Medical Supply – Black Market | Black Market | Medical Shortage | 3 × Medical Supplies (Common) | +3 | 360 |
| Soup Kitchen Supplies | Lower Levels | Bad Harvest | 5 × Peat | +8 | 187 |
| Missing Evidence Locker | Security | Evidence Break-In | 1 × Evidence Locker | +10 | 400 |
| Stolen Evidence Locker | Black Market | Evidence Break-In | 1 × Evidence Locker | +5 | 700 |
| Critical Repair | Lower Levels | Meteor Shower | 1 × Engineering Supply Crate | +10 | 350 |
| Pool Repair | Upper Level | Meteor Shower | 1 × Engineering Supply Crate | +5 | 500 |
| Materials for Lower Level Construction | Lower Levels | Construction Projects | 5 × Scrap Metal | +6 | 75 |
| Construction Supplies | Black Market | Construction Projects | 5 × Scrap Metal | +3 | 100 |
Faction Operations
| Event | When | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Rent Due | Every 7 days | Failure to pay will result in debt. |
| Mortgage Payment | Weekly | Pay your mortgage installments. |
| Cartel Visit | When in the cartel storyline | A cartel member will visit. |
| Lottery Draw | Every Saturday; | Winning number will be displayed in the newspaper. |
| Operation | Faction | Lasts | Price effects | Occurrence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increased Weapons Demand | Revolution | 3 days | Watch out for a rise in Weapons and Ammo prices, which will go up by +25%. | Recurring from about day 8 |
| Illegal Weapon Shipment Arrives! | Black Market | 2 days | This is your chance for a drop in Weapons and Ammo prices by −35%. | Recurring from around day 10. No heads-up for this one! |
| Household Aid Distributed! | Upper Level | 2 days | Look for prices in Household Goods to drop significantly at −40%. | Recurring from early on in your playthrough. No warning here either! |
| Security Budget Increase | Security | 1 day | No price effects here. | Once, around day 10 |
| Revolution Mobilization | Revolution | 2 days | Expect prices for Weapons, Ammo, Medical supplies, and Armor to shoot up by +40%. | |
| Revolution Raid on Upper Level | Revolution | 1 day | Household prices will see a drop of −30%. | |
| Revolution Raid on Security | Revolution | 1 day | Medical supply prices will spike up by +75%. | |
| Security Patrols Intensified | Security | 4 days | No price effects here. | |
| Station-wide Crackdown | Security | 2 days | No price effects (but a Security Inspector will pop in daily). | |
| Black Market Raid | Security | 2 days | Narcotics will go up by +50%, while Weapons and Ammo also see increases of +40%. | |
| Revolution Hideout Busted | Security | 1 day | No price effects here. | |
| Martial Law Declared | Security | 3 days | No price effects. However, Lockdown will happen which halts any riots, raids, and mobilizations. | |
| Gang War in the Lower Levels | Black Market | 3 days | There will be a spike in Medical prices at +50%. | |
| Riots Break Out | Lower Levels | 1 day | Food prices rise by +30%, and expect a notable increase in Weapons and Ammo by +50%. | |
| Workers on Strike | Lower Levels | 3 days | Water, Rations, and Food will see an increase of +40%. | |
| Medical Aid Distributed | Upper Level | 2 days | Prices for Medical supplies drop by −25%, and Food prices will decrease by −10%. |
After-Hours Events
During events, carefully monitor requests that correlate with ongoing market changes. You might find that fulfilling these requests gives you extra credits, which will help you reinvest into your shop.
| Event | Location | When | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh Dump | Dumping Ground | Every Wednesday | There’s a −50% chance of finding junk (so you’ll uncover better goodies!) but do watch out because your injury chance spikes by +25%. |
| Georgio’s Assistance | Dumping Ground | Georgio is there to help you on day 15 (just a heads up, he won’t offer this if you have the Maimed perk): for 50 Credits, you can secure support for 3 nights. | With this, there won’t be any injuries, plus you’ll get an extra 5 scavenging attempts to make the most of your endeavors. |
| Closed | Dr. Jackson | Every Monday | The shop is closed, but it gets replaced by Special Stock once you snag Monday’s Special Stock. |
| Special Stock | Dr. Jackson | Every Monday (you’ll need the Monday’s Special Stock upgrade, which costs 1250 cr) | Expect rare items to be available, but be prepared for prices that are +150%. |
| Discount | Dr. Jackson | Every Sunday | A sweet deal! Prices drop by −10% on this day. |
| Fresh Restock | Commissary | Every Friday | The stock gets a refreshing boost to 35% of its maximum capacity. |
| Burglary | Commissary | Happens after you make a purchase from a Food Thief | This results in reduced stock at the Commissary, thanks to the looted goods disappearing from their shelves. |
